Dr. Gonzalo Castro de la Mata, Executive Director of Earthna Center for a Sustainable Future, a member of Qatar Foundation
Preoccupations regarding the continued deterioration of the world’s environment are a significant focus of our times. Scientists, politicians, influencers and actors express concern, but often without hard data to support their opinions. To some, human civilization is inevitably destined to oblivion, however our generation is the most prosperous in human history. To quote J. Robert Oppenheimer: “The optimist thinks this is the best of all possible worlds. The pessimist fears it is true.” But where does the truth lie? Here, I present the two sides of the same coin.
Scientists at the Stockholm Resilience Center in Sweden, an international organization dedicated to transdisciplinary research on the governance of social-ecological systems, have defined and monitored our “planetary boundaries” for several years. These boundaries refer to the physical and ecological limits beyond which major damage to ecosystems and human civilization can occur (“the stability and resilience of the Earth’s system”). In a 2023 report, the Center suggests that we have already exceeded six of the nine planetary boundaries studied, including biogeochemical flows, freshwater change, land-system change, biosphere integrity, climate change, and novel entities (e.g., microplastics, hormone disruptors, radioactive materials, genetically modified organisms). Regarding the other boundaries, ocean acidification is close to being breached, and aerosol loading exceeds its limits in some regions. The only boundary that has recovered slightly is stratospheric ozone depletion.
The authors conclude, alarmingly, that their work “may serve as a renewed wake-up call to humankind that the Earth is in danger of leaving its Holocene-like state.” In plain language, this means that we are about to destroy our planet.
On the other side of the coin are scientists such as Hannah Ritchie at the University of Oxford and her newly published book, “Not the End of the World: How We Can Be the First Generation to Build a Sustainable Planet.” According to Dr. Ritchie, when we look at the data comprehensively, but also include measurements of human progress such as health and prosperity, a very different picture emerges. She demonstrates that humankind has made so much progress in tackling poverty and environmental degradation, that we are well positioned to achieve sustainability for the first time in history. Key data points that support Dr Richie’s argument include the fact that carbon emissions per capita have actually decreased in the last decade; deforestation peaked in the 1980s and now forests are recovering; the air we breathe today is much cleaner than it was centuries ago; and there has been a decrease in deaths caused by natural disasters compared to a century ago. Based on the most comprehensive data set assembled on all elements of environment and sustainability, Dr Ritchie concludes that the challenges we face are enormous – but they are solvable, and we are not necessarily doomed.
What does this mean for environmental policy makers? It means that we need to acknowledge that, as science progresses, there will always be moments of divergence in scientific viewpoints. And having acknowledged – and despite – this reality, embrace the fundamentals of the debates and continue to base our decisions on science, and not on panic or knee-jerk reactions. This is the essence of evidence-based policy making, where research and accurate data informs decision-making. At Earthna, we seek to understand Qatar’s environmental challenges and create data-driven policy pathways that provide insights to the country as it strives to achieve its 2030 Vision. We cannot give into despair; instead, we need to work towards solving problems with optimism, and always assisted by science.